Article
Last Reviewed: 26 September 2019 / Submitted: 24 July 2019
We have updated our scenarios following the Supreme Court judgment that prorogation of Parliament was unlawful. The main change from this and other recent events is in our central scenario - now shifting towards an extension to the A50 timetable (a 70% chance) to allow most likely for a General Election. Within that is a material possibility (almost 30%) of a Labour-led government before the end of the year including an outside chance one is formed even before the end of October 31st. Although not our central case, the materiality of the Labour Party policy agenda makes it a 'high impact' scenario for all stakeholders in UK assets. Hard Brexit remains another material downside risk.